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... Science Frontiers ONLINE No. 62: Mar-Apr 1989 Issue Contents Other pages Home Page Science Frontiers Online All Issues This Issue Sourcebook Project Sourcebook Subjects Measles epidemics: noisy or chaotic?The incidence of measles in New York City, 1928-1964. Noise or chaos? We should talk about chaos more. This subject threatens to undermine the popular notion that nature is fully deter ministic. We like to think that if we are given enough data that scientific laws will allow us to predict the future ac curately. But, unhappily, determinism stumbles when trying to cope with the weather, asteroid motion, the heart's electrical activity, and an increasing number of natural systems. Chaos lurks everywhere! The growing split in scientific outlook is seen very clearly in the statistics of New York City measles epidemics before mass vaccinations. Take a look at the graph of recorded cases. The expected peaks occur each winter, but there is a strong tendency toward alternate mild and severe years. Very nice mathematical models exist that purport to predict the progress of epidemics. They take into account such factors as the human contact rate, disease latency period, the existing immune population, etc. It is all very methodical, but it fails to account for the irregularities in actual data. Deterministic scientists claim that just by adding a little "noise" they could duplicate the observed curve. On the other hand, a very simple model that acknowledges the reality of chaos easily duplicates the measured data. Who is right? The determinists and chaosists (chaosians?) are now fighting it out ...

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2. Science Frontiers #62, MAR-APR 1989

... Science Frontiers ONLINE No. 62: Mar-Apr 1989 Other pages Home Page Science Frontiers Online All Issues Last Issue Next Issue Sourcebook Project Sourcebook Subjects Contents Archaeology The cup-and-ring motif in america Vikings in south america? Astronomy THE "RESIDUE FALLACY" DOES NOT APPLY TO ALL RESIDUES! RECENT MARTIAN RIVERS ERODE ALBA PATERA Dancing to the comets' tune Biology Measles epidemics: noisy or chaotic? A MAMMOTH TALE! A HAIR-RAISING PHENOMENON Geology THE COOKIE CUTTER STRIKES AGAIN -- FOUR TIMES - IN NORWAY Geophysics Visual sightings of vortices in britain WHAT IS EXPLODING 400 MILES BENEATH OUR FEET? Psychology Researches in reincarnation Physics MORE CHALLENGES TO NEWTON'S LAW OF GRAVITATION ...

Terms matched: 1 - Score: 15 - 15 May 2017 - URL: /sf062/index.htm

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	Science Frontiers The Unusual & Unexplained Strange Science * Bizarre Biophysics * Anomalous astronomy From the pages of the World's Scientific Journals Archaeology Astronomy Biology Geology Geophysics Mathematics Psychology Physics

	About Science Frontiers Science Frontiers is the bimonthly newsletter providing digests of reports that describe scientific anomalies; that is, those observations and facts that challenge prevailing scientific paradigms. Over 2000 Science Frontiers digests have been published since 1976. These 2,000+ digests represent only the tip of the proverbial iceberg. The Sourcebook Project, which publishes Science Frontiers, also publishes the Catalog of Anomalies, which delves far more deeply into anomalistics and now extends to sixteen volumes, and covers dozens of disciplines. Over 14,000 volumes of science journals, including all issues of Nature and Science have been examined for reports on anomalies. In this context, the newsletter Science Frontiers is the appetizer and the Catalog of Anomalies is the main course. Subscriptions Subscriptions to the Science Frontiers newsletter are no longer available. Compilations of back issues can be found in Science Frontiers: The Book, and original and more detailed reports in the The Sourcebook Project series of books. The publisher Please note that the publisher has now closed, and can not be contacted.

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